Indian agriculture, one of the pillars of the economy, is facing serious challenges from nature. Sugarcane output, the primary source of raw materials for the sugar and ethanol industries, has decreased significantly in 2024 due to the dual impact of prolonged drought and unusually heavy rains.
Drought and Heavy Rain Severely Impact India
A report by the Indian Ministry of Agriculture indicates that major sugarcane-growing regions, such as Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh, are likely to experience a yield reduction of 15% to 20%. Below-average rainfall in the first half of the year, followed by unexpectedly heavy rains in the fall, has caused sugarcane crops to wither or become waterlogged, resulting in decreased quality and reduced harvest volumes.
India's sugar production may drop significantly due to adverse weather conditions
India’s Sugar Production Faces a Sharp Decline
According to data from the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA), sugar production in India is projected to fall to approximately 27 million tons, down from 32 million tons in the 2023/24 crop year. This production level would fall below the country’s annual consumption of 29 million tons, raising concerns about potential shortages.
Shrikant Ingle, a sugarcane farmer from Solapur, Maharashtra, shared his struggles "Normally, we harvest about 120–130 tons per hectare, but in 2024, the yield has dropped to just 80 tons, despite our best efforts."
Global Implications from a Leading Sugar Producer
As the world’s second-largest sugar producer, India’s reduced sugarcane output is not just a domestic issue - it has global consequences. India’s sugar exports are expected to shrink to 4 million tons, a sharp decrease from 6 million tons last year. This decline adds pressure to global sugar supplies, potentially driving up prices and affecting markets worldwide.
The situation highlights the growing vulnerability of agricultural systems to extreme weather, emphasizing the urgent need for adaptive strategies to mitigate such risks.
India’s Sugar Output Falls Short of Consumption for Eight Consecutive Years
The decline in sugarcane production has driven domestic sugar prices in India up by over 20% in the second half of 2024, significantly impacting household living costs. Additionally, ethanol production—a sector prioritized by the Indian government to reduce reliance on energy imports - has also slowed, compounding the challenges.
A Climate Change Warning for Agriculture
India’s dwindling sugarcane output is not just a domestic issue but a cautionary tale for other nations, particularly those heavily reliant on agriculture. As climate change continues to disrupt traditional farming practices, adaptation and innovation are critical to safeguarding economies and ensuring global food security.
This situation underscores the urgent need for sustainable agricultural strategies to address the growing threats posed by extreme weather conditions.
Climate Change Severely Impacts the Agricultural Sector
The decline in sugarcane output in 2024 stands as a stark reminder of the growing effects of climate change on Indian agriculture. With increasingly harsh and unpredictable weather patterns, the agricultural sector must adopt more sustainable practices, such as introducing drought-resistant crop varieties and improving water management systems, to ensure resilience in the face of these challenges.
Lessons for Vietnam Amid Looming Challenges
India's experience with declining sugarcane production serves as a wake-up call for Vietnam - a nation with an agricultural economy playing a pivotal role in its development. While Vietnam is not a major sugarcane exporter like India, its domestic sugarcane industry faces similar vulnerabilities.
Proactively addressing these challenges by learning from India's struggles can help Vietnam mitigate risks, protect its agricultural sector, and enhance long-term food security in the face of climate change.
Applying Advanced Technology to Agriculture
In recent years, climate change has directly impacted sugarcane productivity in key growing regions of Vietnam, such as the Central Highlands and the Southwest. Compounding the issue, competition from inexpensive imported sugar has pushed many domestic sugar factories into financial difficulties, with some even forced to shut down.
To tackle these challenges, Vietnam must prioritize the development of drought - resistant sugarcane varieties and enhance farming efficiency through advanced agricultural technologies. Simultaneously, implementing protective policies for the sugar industry is crucial to mitigate competitive pressures from the international market.
These measures will ensure a stable and sustainable sugar supply, safeguarding the industry and supporting Vietnam’s agricultural resilience in the long term.
